Estimation of Past and Future Mass Balance of Glaciers of Sikkim Himalaya using Energy Balance Modelling Approach and Regional Climatic Projections

Abstract

In this study, the mass balance of Sikkim Himalayan glaciers is computed by the energy balance modeling approach using REMO and APHRODITE data. According to the present work, the glaciers show a mass balance of ~0, +0.31 and –0.32 m w. e. yr –1 for time periods 1981-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2005. To investigate the possible changes in the near future (2006-2049) and far future (2070-2099), REMO data under different representation concentration pathway scenarios 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 are also analysed. For the time period 2006–2100, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 give an average mass balance of -0.75 m w. e. yr –1, -1.04 m w. e. yr –1 and -1.4 m w. e. yr –1, respectively. The results are comparable to other studies. This study is one of the few studies carried out to estimate the mass balance of glaciers using only climate model data.