Spatio-Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation and Flow Indices in the Lower and Middle Ouémé Valley in Benin
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70917/jcc-2025-026Keywords:
Climate change , Extreme, Précipitation indices, Flow indices, Trend analysis , Stationarity break pointAbstract
The urgent need to study rainfall variability and its link to river flows is well established, given its direct impact on the socio-economic development of nations. This study analyzed the variability of extreme precipitation and flow indices at several stations in the lower and middle Ouémé valley in Benin. Five extreme precipitation indices (RX1DAY, RX3DAY, RX10DAY, SPI, PRCPTOT), as well as two extreme river flow indices (Q50 and Q95) were used. To conduct this analysis, we employed the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to examine trends and the Pettitt test to identify stationarity breaks in the data series. The results indicate strong spatio-temporal variability in the indices studied. The break years are generally similar among indices but vary from one station to another. Three main breaks were identified over the study period (1960-2022): the first in 1970, the second in 1990, and the third after the 2000s. Regarding trends and the distribution of water surplus and deficit years, a cyclical pattern emerges. There is an overall downward trend in precipitation indices, with three distinct periods: a first and third water surplus period, separated by a deficit period, which is the longest. Concerning flow indices, two main breaks have been identified: one in 1970 and another in 1990. Trend analysis reveals a significant decrease in the Q95, while the Q50 shows an upward trend. Finally, an examination of the relationships between precipitation and flow indices shows that only the Q95 is significantly influenced by precipitation indices, especially the SPI and PRCPTOT. However, the relationship between Q95 and PRCPTOT is inversely proportional.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Freddy Zinsè HOUNNONDAHO, Ezéchiel Obada, Casimir Y. Da-Allada, Adéchina Eric Alamou, Marius Bocco Koubè, Josué Zandagba (Author)
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